Earthquakes: Facts vs. Myths

Ignorantia juris non excusat

     Ignorance of the law excuses no one. Although earthquakes are not governed by the law of men, it is, however a natural occurrence, ignorance of which may spell the crucial difference between life and death. In geology, earthquakes are one of the key themes for understanding how the planet works. We have studied this phenomenon, since the dawn of civilization, with different and sometimes non-systematic approaches, then the scientific method became a standard after the 17th century and geology knew its peak moments only with the affirmation of the continental drift theory in the 20th century. 

     Before those times, we did not have the correct tools for understanding earthquakes. Therefore, interpretations were often based on random coincidences or linked to popular beliefs and legends. Corollary to this, people felt (and still feel) comforted by those interpretations that managed to explain what, back then, science was unable to understand. As science progresses with time, we are able to grasp the complexities of natural phenomenon such as earthquakes. But how can misconceptions still prevail? The answer can be found in how they work. It  provides a scheme or sort of consolation, while the role of science isn’t consolatory at all. This is the reason why people often tend to believe in something that gives them hope or sense of safety. Science, on the other hand, is strongly based on facts and logic. Its way is rigid and sometimes difficult, resulting to a form of resistance.

      With that, here are the most common things we thought to be true about earthquakes.

#1 Animals Can Predict Earthquakes

     This myth enjoys continued popularity, despite studies refuting it. The 1976 Haicheng Earthquake in China was said to have been successfully predicted allegedly by animal behaviors, which may have been the case. But, the primary reason the seismologists made a forecast was because of an increasingly intense earthquake swarm, and not animal behavior. Also, a theory popularized in Santa Clara County, California in the 1980s asserted that when dogs ran away from home it was a premonitory sign of an earthquake. According to the Seismological Society of America, there is no strong evidence behind the claim that cats, dogs and other animals go crazy before an earthquake (Woith et al., 2018). A study of 41,717 reports of missing pets and 224 earthquakes in the region found that the data show no correlation (Schaal, 1988). A report by the Seismological Society of America reviewed nearly 200 publications referring to abnormal animal behavior before quakes and notes the animals' strange behaviors occurred anywhere from seconds to months prior to the earthquakes, and at distances from a few to hundreds of kilometers from the earthquake origins (Woith et al., 2018).

#2 Earthquakes are more possible to happen when some condition of weather are present or at some period of time in the day or month

     The common misconception that earthquakes occur during hot and dry weather is wrong, and dates to the ancient Greeks, so is the idea that they concentrate in some time in the day (Hough, 2018) or during full moon (Wolchover, 2011). Earthquakes take place miles underground, and can happen at any time in any weather. Just as earthquakes don't care about the weather, it can't tell time. The 1940 Imperial Valley quake was at 9:36 p.m., the 1989 Loma Prieta quake at 5:02 p.m. People who perpetuate the time and weather myths tend to remember the earthquakes that fit the pattern and forget about the ones that don't.

#3 Earthquakes are becoming more frequent

     Research shows that earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or greater have remained fairly constant throughout the century and have actually decreased in recent years (Shearer & Stark, 2011). However, since there are a greater number of seismological centers and instruments capable of locating many small earthquakes that went undetected in earlier years, it may seem as if there are more. Anyways, any clustering of seismic activity in time is apparent (Michael, 2011).

#4 When a big earthquake happens, it is because a big fracture in the earth is opening somewhere near the epicentre

     That's not how it works. You've might have seen the image in books, movies and TV shows. If a fault could open up, there wouldn't be any friction. Without friction, there's no earthquake (Southern California Earthquake Center, 2011). But earthquakes cause settling and other ground deformation that can include open fissures. Those are commonly a secondary effect of the earthquake.

#5 During an earthquake always stand under a doorway

    That's true only if you live in an unreinforced adobe home. In a modern structure the doorway is no stronger than the rest of the building. Actually, during the event, most injuries are from nonstructural components falling, like a TV or a cabinet that isn’t tied to a wall. Fearing a building collapse, many people immediately run outside and you could be in danger from people trying to hurry outside. If you're inside, get under a table or desk and hang on to it (Official Website of the Department of Homeland Security, 2018).

#6 Small earthquakes keep big one from happening

     Theoretically yes, but actually no. If you look at earthquake statistics in most regions of the world you will find that for every Magnitude 5 earthquake, there are about 10 that have a Magnitude of 4, and for each Magnitude 4, there are 10 with Magnitude 3. Unfortunately, this means there are not enough small earthquakes to relieve enough stress to prevent the large events. In fact, it would take 32 Magnitude 5's, 1000 Magnitude 4's, or 32,000 Magnitude 3's to equal the energy produced in one Magnitude 6 event (U.S.G.S., 2019). So while a small quake may temporarily ease stress on a fault line, it does not prevent a big one.

#7 We can predict earthquakes

     No. We’re used to weather forecasts for tomorrow or a week from now, but we can’t predict earthquakes on those kinds of time horizons. What we can do is predict them on long time horizons that are more akin to the geologic cycles (Neith, 2013).   We can predict probabilities of earthquakes and shaking levels over the next 50 years or 100 years, and we can do that fairly well. Producing the models used to predict ground shaking levels in future earthquakes is a critical element in building codes. Probabilities and earthquakes model are based on past events: geologist collect data from fault displacement, landslides, liquefaction, and ground deformations to understand the earthquake and try to fit those information in models that can be more or less accurate (Turcotte et al., 2004). This data helps grow our knowledge of earthquakes, and it will be useful in future researches to improve public safety and provide more reliable seismic risk assessments around the world. So, there is currently no scientific way to determine when earthquakes will occur. Geologists can make statements about earthquake rates and where earthquakes are likely to occur at some future point, but they cannot calculate when and where earthquakes of certain magnitudes will strike.

#8 Earthquakes signs from some supernatural beings

   This can be difficult. As far as we know we cannot scientifically expound supernatural occurrences. It concerns our beliefs. By the way, depending on the time and culture involved, we tried to fit the earthquakes happening into a mythological or religious scenario. In ancient times, earthquakes were thought to be caused by restless gods or giant creatures slumbering beneath the Earth. In Greek mythology, one of Poseidon's 'nicknames' is Earthshaker. Stories are told of Poseidon striking the ground with this trident, which triggered earthquakes. In contrast, the early Greek philosophers developed a theory that earthquakes were caused by movements of gases trying to escape from underground. In the 18th century western scientists, including Isaac Newton, thought earthquakes were caused by explosions of flammable material deep underground. In 1760, the Reverend John Mitchell proposed that earthquakes were caused by rock movements and related the shaking to the propagation of elastic waves within the earth. Modern science doesn’t relate on beliefs, that’s why those interpretations are rejected in a research field. Truth be told, this myth can easily be debunked if not for our penchant for superstitious beliefs. 

#9 False alarm, even if generated by some of these misconceptions, is better than no alarm

    The 1990 Iben Browning earthquake prediction for the New Madrid seismic zone in the central United States remains the ultimate illustration of how a rumor can get out of control without proper official response (Spence et al., 1993). At the time, Iben Browning, an independent business consultant, predicted that a major earthquake would strike the region around New Madrid, Missouri, on or around 3 December 1990. The prediction was so well publicized that public agitation rose to serious levels, causing much fear and apprehension in the public. The media hype and public agitation surrounding this prediction were remarkable considering Browning's lack of qualifications in seismology and the denunciation of this prediction by practically all earthquake seismologists. During the days before the predicted event, three emergency phone lines were in use simultaneously. Requests for written information doubled from the pre-prediction average. Officials at these centers reported spending months fighting unfounded rumors and rampant misconceptions about earthquake risks. Most callers were upset about the perceived threat of a catastrophic earthquake. These people expressed fear, anxiety, panic, hysteria, and related symptoms. Fortunately, telephone hotlines to crisis centers were established by state and city agencies to disseminate earthquake information or to suggest sources for such information.

#10 Technology has made possible to trigger big earthquakes on purpose 

     This topic has been controversial for many years. A quick google search of "HAARP" coupled with "earthquakes" leads to countless conspiracy theory reports that earthquakes across the globe, including in China and Iran were caused by the US using HAARP. The High Frequency Active Auroral Research Program was set up by the US government in 1993, and run by the US Air Force and US Navy. According to official papers HAARP was set up “analyse the ionosphere and investigate the potential for developing ionospheric enhancement technology for radio communications and surveillance”. However, some conspiracy theorists are convinced that the  US military  is involved in using HAARP as a weapon against other countries. Sadly for the conspiracy theorists, HAARP has no potential to affect weather and tectonic activity. Actually, no device or technology nowadays has the ability to trigger sensible or destructive seismic activity on purpose. 

     There are actually many ways that human activities can trigger earthquakes unintentionally. In this case we talk about induced seismicity. This kind of seismicity consists in minor earthquakes and tremors that are caused by human activity that alters the stresses and strains on the Earth's crust. Most induced seismicity is of a low magnitude. A few sites regularly have larger quakes, such as The Geysers geothermal plant in California which averaged two Magnitude 4 events and 15 Magnitude 3 events every year from 2004 to 2009 (Anderson Springs Community Alliance, 2009). Also, most of the significant earthquakes in Oklahoma, such as the 1952 Magnitude 5.7 El Reno earthquake may have been induced by deep injection of waste water by the oil industry (Hough & Page, 2015). So, induced seismicity can be related to mining, artificial lakes, wells, geothermal power plants and hydraulic fracturing. A 2012 report from the U.S. National Research Council examined the potential for energy technologies (including shale gas recovery, carbon capture and storage, geothermal energy production, and conventional oil and gas development) to cause earthquakes (U.S. National Research Council, 2014). The report found that only a very small fraction of injection and extraction activities among the hundreds of thousands of energy development sites in the United States have induced seismicity at levels noticeable to the public. However, although scientists understand the general mechanisms that induce seismic events, they are unable to accurately predict the magnitude or occurrence of these earthquakes due to insufficient information about the natural rock systems and a lack of validated predictive models at specific energy development sites (U.S. National Research Council, 2013). The hazard can be mitigated by avoiding some kind of industrial activities and taking more into account the conditions of soil, bedrock and interaction with the fluids. Induced seismicity is only part of the chain reaction from industrial activities that worry the public. Impressions toward induced seismicity are very different between different groups of people (Boroumand, 2015). The public tends to feel more negatively towards earthquakes caused by human activities than natural earthquakes. Two major parts of public concern are related to the damages to infrastructure and the well-being of humans (McComas et al., 2016). Most induced seismic events are below Magnitude 2 and are not able to cause any physical damage. Ergo, as of this date, technology cannot control seismic activity to a level that makes possible to decide location, intensity, and duration.

    In conclusion, some of the myths might sound incredible, some understandable, yet the truth is, misconceptions abound. Be it as it may, only through scientific processes we will become more and more aware and prepared. Even if earthquakes will never become predictable, knowing how to face them is the only way to lower damages and losses. Collectively and individually, there is a need  to make emergency preparedness as a way of life. As an adage succinctly puts it, “It is always prudent to be ready in any eventuality”. 

(Note: Please email me at nathanssafe@gmail.com if you need the references of this article) 



If you are interested in survival kits and other safety gadgets, just follow the link below: Check out my store: https://nathanssafe.com Get Free Rescue Card and Survival Training Guides http://bit.ly/33FEVzE Get Free Survival Kit and Survival Guides http://bit.ly/33EfG0O Get Free Waterproof Fire Starter http://bit.ly/34NT937 Solar Air Lantern http://bit.ly/2OXJlg2 For more ways on how to survive during emergencies just click the links below:
Secrets of Surviving During Calamities http://bit.ly/34JLy5C Learn Survival Techniques http://bit.ly/2R7KRPp Rediscover the Lost Ways in Survival http://bit.ly/2DzKbuk